"National team"securities in the third quarter of entertainment investment four changes two, is valued is the head enterprise
in the third quarter, CSC has liquidated its holdings in Kunlun Wanwei shares, withdrew from the top 10 shareholders of New Culture, reduced most of its holdings in Huatze Film and Television, and bought Palm Technology.
original title: what logical changes have taken place in the big entertainment investment behind the increase of positions and the reduction of holdings of Huatze and Kunlun Wanwei in the third quarter of the "National team"?the financial results for the third quarter of 2017 have been disclosed, and the investment roadmap of institutional funds, especially the "national team", in the A-share market has also surfaced. In the semi-annual report, it appears in the CSC announced by entertainment listed companies, and the position situation has also changed in the third quarter.
since the second half of 2017, the "National team" has begun to frequently get its hands on companies in the entertainment industry. According to the release period of the mid-July report, CSC appeared in the top 10 shareholders of Huatze Film and Television, Oriental Pearl, Kunlun Wanwei and New Culture Media before the third quarter. The reporter found that in the third quarter, CSC had cleared its holdings of Kunlun Wanwei shares, withdrew from the top 10 shareholders of New Culture, and reduced most of its holdings in Huatze Film and Television, while buying Palm Technology.
the stocks bought by the margin, which previously represented the important force of the "national team," were uniformly referred to by the market as "margin concept stocks." once many listed companies are held by the CSF, they will immediately issue a notice to inform the world that many CSF concept stocks have been popular in the market.
among the listed companies that had published the China News before August 1, CSC was once among the top 10 shareholders of 15 companies. Among them, as a cultural and media company, Huatze Film and Television and Kunlun Wanwei announced to the public at that time and became the favored object of CSF. On August 21, New Culture Media also announced that the Securities Deposit appeared in the top ten shareholders for the first time, buying 12.0632 million shares, accounting for 2.24%.
judging from the three quarterly reports, just three months later, the situation has changed. In addition to Kunlun Wanwei and New Culture being reduced to basic clearance at the same time, Huatze Film and Television, which bought 40 million shares in the second quarter, also reduced its shareholding from 3.99% to 0.88%. At the same time, the proportion of shares held by Zheng Jin and Huijin remained unchanged only the Oriental Pearl, which remained at 8.23%. Palm fun Technology is a new holding enterprise in the third quarter of CSC, accounting for 0.56% of the outstanding shares in the current period.
Kunlun Wanwei's reduction is the most eye-catching. When the semi-annual report was released in August, CSC appeared at the top of the list of the top 10 tradable shareholders in Kunlun with 5.2% of its outstanding shares. At that time, the "national team" favored Kunlun Wanwei for every reason, because Kunlun's semi-annual report revealed good news that the fundamentals were strong. According to the medium report released by Kunlun Wanwei, the operating income in the second quarter was 1.737 billion yuan, an increase of 41.73% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 384 million yuan, an increase of 57.52% over the same period last year.
but only a quarter later, CSF withdrew from the ranks and basically liquidated its Kunlun Wanwei shares. In addition to CSC, the leading institutional investors are also reducing their holdings.
the reason is very likely that Kunlun Wanwei's recent acquisition has stepped on the red line of margin: as a "national team", strict requirements for risk avoidance and compliance must come first. Kunlun Wanwei bought a 51% stake in its main chess and card company, "idle mutual entertainment" in 2016, but recently received an inquiry letter issued by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, focusing on whether the main products and offline operations of idle mutual entertainment are legal and compliant, whether it has the nature of gambling. In Kunlun Wanwei's reply, it highlighted the point that "there is no transaction setting of virtual currency and currency in circulation, and there is no gambling attribute."
the uncertainty of
this uncertainty is considered to have a certain warning of" high risk ahead "for investment institutions such as the" national team ".
although Huatze, which has also been reduced, achieved excellent results in the third quarter, it also has problems that make the CSC feel that there is a "hidden danger". On October 29th, Huatze Film and Television released its quarterly report for 2017. from January to September, the company achieved operating income of 2.497 billion yuan, an increase of 6.04% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 308 million yuan belonging to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year. But the hidden worry of Huatze is Letv's huge arrears.
Letv was previously the largest defaulter of Huatze Film and Television, and the company's balance of accounts receivable to Xizang Letv Information Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Xizang Letv") was about 368 million yuan. According to the announcement, 132 million yuan was formed because the repertoire was not broadcast and 236 million yuan was formed because the repertoire was already broadcast. Prior to the reduction of margin holdings, according to Huatze's external announcement, "with regard to the 368 million yuan owed by Letv, the parties concerned are still in friendly negotiations on the details, and an agreement is expected to be reached in the third quarter." This morning, another notice from Huatze pointed out that the accounts receivable from Xizang and Letv formed by the unbroadcast play have been eliminated, but the remaining money will be paid in 2018 and 2019, and there is still a high risk of recovery and loss.
what is worth mentioning is the increase of the deposit to the palm interest. As one of the leading stocks in the gaming industry, the trend of palm fun has been talked about by the outside world. It was suspended from trading for five months from January to June this year. After reviewing, it was acquired by Tencent, and then the share price fluctuated greatly. In July this year, Huayi Brothers reduced its holdings and gained 97 million yuan while the palm fun share price was red, which also allowed its stock to rise for several days.
strong > under the major strategic adjustment of the "National team", the investment in the entertainment sector is gradually weakening / strong >
the number of entertainment companies held by CSC has changed from four to three in the third quarter. However, it is not just the entertainment sector, but CSC generally cut the number of listed companies in the stock pool in the third quarter.
Oriental Fortune Choice data show that CSC held shares in 389 listed companies in the third quarter, 47 fewer than in the second quarter. Correspondingly, CSC's shareholding market value in the third quarter was 720.944 billion yuan, which was 2.813 billion yuan lower than that in the second quarter.
in addition to the adjustment of the shareholding allocation of the "national team", the sharp decline in the valuations of gem and media stocks and the sharp rise in blue chips in the past few months may also be the reason for the change in the national team's shareholding in the third quarter.
according to Wind statistics, as of June 30, 2017, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of gem was 51.27 times, down 54.4% from 112.55 times on June 30, 2015. By comparison, media stocks have fallen even more, with valuations falling from 105.52 times to 38.02 times over the past two years, and the price-to-earnings ratio for the first half of 2017 was just 1x3.
Galaxy Securities statistics show that by the end of the second quarter, the market value of the fund's heavy holdings in the media industry accounted for 1.76% of the market value of stock investment, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous month, and the allocation ratio was close to the lowest point since the second quarter of 2013.
since 2017, as the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television and other cultural management departments have been more and more stringent in the regulation of games, film and television, animation and online literature, industry sentiment in the media sector has been suppressed to a certain extent, and industry valuations have continued to decline.
under such circumstances, the logic of the margin from "increasing holdings" to "reducing holdings" is also completely understandable: originally, the general trend of the market value of investment holdings has encountered an unstable plate, and the situation of reducing holdings of three listed companies is also completely normal.
as a margin, the advance and withdrawal in the stock market and the increase or decrease of holdings are mainly based on three logic strong >, one is the potential of the industry sector itself and its impact on the overall stock market, the second is the performance and growth potential of individual stocks, and the third is the cyclical return factor of selling high and absorbing low. / strong >
judging from these three factors, the cultural and entertainment sector is indeed attractive to the CSG, because the cultural and entertainment consumption has sprung up in the past three years, and the demand for entertainment in people's consumer life is increasing, but there is also great uncertainty and change in this sector, so the Zheng Jin has been held and listed on the top ten shareholders of the contemporary Oriental in history. Huawen Media and others have experienced the fate of short-term selling, and it is not surprising that the same thing happened to New Culture and Kunlun Wanwei.
at the same time, CSC also attaches great importance to the performance of individual stocks. After all, the entire CSF plate spans almost all industries of the national economy. Once you feel that the returns of individual stocks are unpredictable, you can adjust and reduce your holdings or clear your positions in a short period of time. It's also completely free to advance or retreat.
although the overall downward trend of the gem and film and television media sectors has not abated, judging from the positions announced by some public offering funds, the head drama and mobile games industry has become a segment of the A-share media sector with high bearing.
judging from the logic of CSF shareholding in the past, the main direction in which the "national team" chooses "valuation + performance" will not change. Even if it is to reduce its holdings, after all, the national team still holds a large number of entertainment companies, including Oriental Pearl, Huatze Film and Television, Palm fun Technology, and so on.
but in the past six months or so, the investment direction of the margin may have changed, and the stock selection criteria of the deposit in different sectors have become more flexible, and there is a tendency to further increase the holdings of those leading stocks with solid performance but low valuation. What's more, the key shareholders of the CSF itself are financial, energy, military, and other stocks related to the people's livelihood, coupled with the strategic expansion and retreat of the "national team" under the spring tide of the market, the status of cultural and entertainment enterprises may seem less important.
of course, the margin, like all other investment institutions, making money and arbitrage exit is its biggest goal: in this case, being able to be held by the margin, in a sense, shows the potential and value of the company being held.
2017 in the second half of the year, under the background that the M & A policy has not been relaxed, the endogenous performance may determine the stock price performance of the enterprise in the next 1-2 years. It should be said that the margin is still focused on the potential of the leading enterprises in the game or film and television sector to confirm large projects and a number of income in the third and fourth quarter, and once this potential is implemented, the popularity of the enterprise sought after by investors in the second half of the year will rise, and the stock price will rise: in other words, the margin is also aimed at making money.
Edit: mary