Only 10% of movies make money and lose to movies

the film and television industry is actually very primitive, in which the Nuggets need to follow a lot of rules, if not careful, it is easy to lose all their money. The reporter brings you an in-depth analysis of the investment in the film industry.

original title: "Wolf Warriors 2" won Capital? No, in fact, the capital has been lost to Beijing Culture (000802), one of the investors in Wolf Warriors 2. In the past few weeks, the stock price nearly doubled, and the market value increased by more than 5 billion yuan.

Wolf Warriors 2 earned 4.834 billion yuan at the box office as of press time, making it the No. 1 film in Chinese film history. Wu Jing's Dengfeng International as the main producer, excluding about 200 million investment, about 1.26 billion, Wu Jing's own income is close to 1 billion.

"so I can't be raped by capital. I'm going to sleep with capital." Wu Jing said. This seems to be a happy inspirational story for everyone, but if so, why are there only a handful of films with both fame and fortune?

take a look at the slippery list at the box office, such as "Taiping" and "bid", there are not a few blockbusters with a neat lineup and well-known directors, and even Wu Jing's 2008 self-directed and self-starred "Langya" grossed only 4.21 million at the mainland box office.

so who is sleeping with whom?

strong > under the tuyere is "Mad money" / strong >

in 2016, a video of a girl dancing in the parking lot was constantly edited. It comes from the movie "Love Sage," in which South Korean star Lee Sung-min plays the female model yoyo.

it is understood that the production cost of "Love Sage" is only 40 million, while the box office revenue is as high as 652 million, and the return on investment is 16.3 times. Here has not calculated the network broadcast copyright, advertising placement and other income. The return on investment in "Charlotte worry" in 2015 was an astonishing 47.9 times.

on the contrary, according to the data of Private Placement Network, the best performing Donghua Futures active balance No. 1 in the private equity market in 2016 has a yield of less than 3 times.

the madness of capital markets is reasonable.

according to public data, in 2015, mergers and acquisitions in the film and entertainment sector involved 28.338 billion yuan, including PE and VC.

"there have been several popular movie styles in the past two years, and people think that there is no ceiling in this industry." Wang Lu (pseudonym), CEO of a film and television production company in Shanghai, said.

Wang Lu, who is less than 30 years old this year, has been in the film and television industry for many years. He was the head of an overseas fan group in China. It is said that he spends more than 10 million dollars on chasing stars, authors and stars every year.

in his opinion, most of the management outside the circle did not know the real way. "they took the money, hoping to knock on the door, but maybe the money ran out and the door couldn't be opened."

in 2016, except for the films with the top 20 returns, the remaining nearly 250 domestic films grossed less than 10 billion. Split equally, the box office of each film is only about 15 million.

the Great Wall is probably the best example of huge capital losses.

Zhang Yimou's" the Great Wall "costs more than 1 billion yuan to shoot, including not only big cars like Andy Lau, Matt Damon, Pedro Pascal and Zhang Hanyu, but also young fresh meat like Peng Yuyan and Lin Gengxin, and even hired screenwriters of" Bourne. " Tony Gilroy wrote the screenplay.

however, the final box office of the film is only 1.17 billion. Investors Global, Legend, China Film and Letv lost a total of nearly 500 million yuan.

there are a lot of big-budget productions that end up with a Waterloo at the box office.

"people in this business are really barbarians, because they have ten thousand ways to lose every penny of their money, but in the end they still make money." The capital and investors, who have always played the role of "barbarians", are so pitiful in Wang Lu's eyes.

strong > the poor man who rushed into the market / strong >

"in many cases, the management's final box office share is even less than 30%." Wu Tao, former head of the media investment department of Zhejiang Daily, who has been in charge of several film and television investment cases, said, "from an investment point of view, only 10% of the films in the market can make money, the return cycle is long, and the distribution of investment benefits is complex." For this reason, its parent company's fund only invests directly in film and television production companies.

take "searching for Dragons and grabbing Treasures" as an example, the investment is nearly 200 million, the box office is 32.9 million, and the investor's income is only 10.93 million. Netizens' comments are simple and profound: worse than money laundering.

the seemingly simple share of the box office is actually much more complicated than partnering to buy lottery tickets.

the total box office should first deduct 5% of the film special fund, then 3.3% of the business tax, the remaining 7% of the cinema chain, 50% of the cinema, and 43% of the production. The vast majority of capital can participate in only 43% of production and distribution. Priority and inferiority are just different ways to protect the bottom.

according to an industry insider, the return of investors is basically calculated by default at 33% of the box office, in addition to online copyright and the sale of audio and video products. Among them, the network premiere right, as the main source of income, usually ranges from millions to tens of millions.

"investors don't know the way at all and think that as long as they enter the market and pay for it." Wang Lu said, "the way of playing in this circle is actually very complicated and special."

"if a person is really self-willed, he will not let you feel this way, you will think that he is dead." He is still alive and must have followed a very big rule in some way. " Wang Lu said.

so who customized such a "wayward" rule to keep capital giving money one after another?

strong > the Secret of the Bureau / strong >

2016 2731 films have been approved by the state, but only 629 have been shown.

"there are a lot of films that make or lose money every year, but people in the core circle don't care, because they are always making money." Wang Lu said. The movie overdue or the final dystocia does not affect their earnings, not to mention whether the works sell well or not. For the producers, turning on the phone means making money.

there is an old saying in the film and television circle: "eat a movie for two years." The logic behind this sentence is that making money at the box office and making money for the producer are two different things.

"they make money not only from investment projects, but also from contributions and awards." Wang Lu added, "even if you lose it, as long as the project wins a prize, you will win a prize if you are willing to spend 200 million yuan." Not that this award has any long-term value, but that it will involve industry status. "

in his view, the biggest risk in this industry is the development of film and television works, which is usually driven by the aesthetic and relationship between the director and the producer.

"every chief producer and director has his own team, a team that matches his aesthetic appreciation. But this team left the original team today to work with Zhang Yimou, Feng Xiaogang and other people, and he didn't match. "

the fact is that the combination of top directors and superstars cannot guarantee the profits of investors, or even guarantee the bottom line. The Great Wall is the best example.

but some people's money seems to come more easily.

"like Jiang Zhiqiang (the founder of the blockbuster era of Chinese films and the first for overseas distribution of Chinese), he helplessly watched Andy Lau and Aaron Kwok, from supporting roles to protagonists, to being out of date, had this qualification, so it was easy to make money." New Money always has to pay tuition fees in order to become an Old Money, industry insiders told reporters, "because he can hire Andy Lau, Aaron Kwok, then this money, he should at least earn a price difference."

take a film adapted from a drama in 2015 as an example, the director and his wife had nearly 100m Weibo followers at that time. The overall production cost of the film is more than 70 million, but the actual box office is said to be only 370 million.

"none of the investors should make a profit except the couple who are actors and directors." The unnamed person in the industry told reporters.

Wanda filmed "Special identity". At that time, Donnie yen was able to take it down in 15 million. When Zhen Zidan talked to Wanda, "people in the industry changed their accents to imitate Donnie yen's fellow travelers," saying that you (Wanda) this is a bad film, the script is not good, why. That's 30 million. Just shoot for this number. " The "outsider" of

size plates is the core of this circle. It is said that the final salary was 30 million, and the person with an accent from Hong Kong and Taiwan also became a co-producer.

Wang Lu said. "it's a lot like the investment industry, where there's always only so much at the top." The gap between

strong > and Hollywood / strong >

No matter how crazy the growth is, there will be a smooth day, and when that day comes, the wilderness will come to an end.

from 2001 to 2015, the domestic box office increased from 900 million to 44 billion. But in 2016, the figure was 45.7 billion, the slowest box office growth in nearly a decade.

"in fact, according to our statistics, only less than 8% of domestic films have not lost money in the past five years." According to an industry insider.

if you start from "Party An and Party B", the genre has been developed for only 20 years, and if you start from "Hero", it is only 15 years. Paramount, the oldest of the eight Hollywood congresses, is 105 years old.

"many industries are forced out in a short period of time after capital comes in." Industry insiders told reporters that the film and television industry is no exception. "domestic commercial films really began in 2011, when there were about 9 billion yuan, and people began to make money."

7 years later, this money is getting harder and harder to make.

"after all, there is a limit to the amount of time everyone can spend in the cinema each week." Xu Min, founder and CEO of Mouke Media, said that in the past few years, the overheated film market has led to a massive influx of capital, with too many films released at the same time and individual films unable to earn enough box office. "it seems that the market is very big, but there are also a lot of people who share the cake, but in fact, the box office market in China is only that big."

and China is not Hollywood after all, and the two markets are not of the same order of magnitude at all.

movies grossed $38.6 billion at the global box office in 2016, with Hollywood monopolies accounting for 76%, while domestic films accounted for less than 9%.

so how long will it take for domestic movies to be industrialized in Hollywood?

"very long, for example, five years later." Wang Lu said. I can afford this time, but it doesn't mean that all the people who come to this industry can afford it now, because I'm not 30 years old yet.

"one hundred directors and fifty actors. Chinese cinema movies are such a story." ABD Love Dream Entertainment CEO told reporters in an interview.

this is another story about film industrialization.

Edit: mary