"Wolf Warrior 2" re-measures the depth and breadth of the market: There are still new possibilities in the future

in 2002, Zhang Yimou's Hero played the role of a pathfinder, proving that the consumption potential of the Chinese film market is actually unfathomable. At present, Chinese films still need such a roadstone to re-measure the depth and breadth of the market. "Wolf Warriors 2" is this new roadstone.

the original title: the greatest significance of "Wolf Warriors 2" is to measure the depth and breadth of China's film market

in 2002, Zhang Yimou's "Hero" played the role of a roadstone, proving that the consumption potential of China's film market is actually unfathomable. At present, Chinese films still need such a roadstone to re-measure the depth and breadth of the market. "Wolf Warriors 2" is this new roadstone.

there is a story in Journey to the West: when master and disciple crossed the Tongtian River, Wukong did not learn to swim and asked Bajie to explore the depths of the water. Bajie moved a stone and threw it into the water, and it disappeared with a knock. Bajie concluded that the water was too deep to get through. This stone is called the pathfinder. When you don't know the depth of the river, you have to throw one in to listen to the sound. When you hear "bang", the water is shallow, and when you hear "dong", the water is deep.

Wolf Warriors 2 is such a roadstone that reveals how deep the water is in China's film market today. Zhang Yimou's "Hero" played the same role in 2002. At that time, few people believed that Chinese films could still make money, and Hero sold 250 million yuan at the box office to prove that the Chinese film market is not a roadside puddle, and its consumption potential is actually unfathomable. 250 million yuan, which was astronomical for domestic films at that time. Some quick-sighted investors began to believe that they began to invest in domestic blockbusters and fledgling cinemas, and then the snowball became bigger and bigger, rolling down for 15 years, and the Chinese film box office grew by an average of 30% a year. To have the world's second largest film market.

at present, Chinese films still need such a roadstone to re-measure the depth and breadth of the market. For example, at the beginning of 2017, the number of screens in China reached more than 44000, with more than 1.3 billion moviegoers. So, in a market of this size, where should the ideal balance of return on investment be? How much incremental space does it have? Is it almost touching the ceiling? Most people are not sure about these questions, and at this time, someone needs to throw another pathfinder into the water.

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< I would like to remind you that Hollywood is a global market and we are a domestic market. "Wolf Warriors 2" into the global top 100, in addition to indicating that the domestic market is large enough and the consumption power is strong enough, the "comparability between the two" is an issue worthy of in-depth consideration.

by contrast, another data related to Wolf Warriors 2 deserves our special attention, that is, it has more than 100m moviegoers for the first time. This means that almost one in 13 Chinese has seen the film. At the end of 2016, the number of viewers exceeded 1.3 billion, meaning that the average Chinese people can see a movie once a year. These two figures are really something that all Chinese filmmakers should be proud of.

the market-oriented development of Chinese films began with the reform of cinema system in 2002. Since then, Chinese films have increased at an annual rate of 30%. The number of screens, cinemas and film production is one step a year. The cinema layout has expanded greatly from the traditional first-and second-tier cities to the third-and fourth-tier cities. By the end of 2015, more than 2800 county-level cities across the country (including 853 municipal districts, 370 county-level cities, 1461 counties, autonomous counties, banners, forest areas and other county-level administrative divisions), that is, what we usually call fourth-tier cities, finally achieved full coverage of digital cinemas with 17720 screens. The purpose of doing this is nothing else, but to enable more people, especially those living in remote areas, to watch movies. The total annual audience of 1.3 billion and the single film audience of more than 100 million, these two figures can show that the above goal has been basically achieved. That's why we say that these two figures make people feel the power of a film more than breaking the highest box office record for a domestic film.

if the box office of "Wolf Warriors 2" exceeds 5 billion yuan, or even 5.5 billion yuan, will it touch the ceiling of the Chinese film market? In other words, what should be the box office limit for a single film in the Chinese film market? Frankly speaking, I don't know how to answer this question either. However, we can refer to the data from South Korea. South Korea took the top spot at the box office in 2016, "Busan trip", which set a record of 11.56 million moviegoers. The total population of South Korea in 2016 was 51.25 million, that is, the film accounted for 22.5% of the total population of South Korea. Let's convert this number to China to have a look. China has a total population of 1.37 billion. If a domestic film can also make 22% of the country's population its audience, according to the average ticket price of 35 yuan, the box office will exceed 10 billion yuan.

look at the number of screens in China. In March 2017, China surpassed North America's 43531 screens with a total of 44489 screens, becoming the country with the largest number of screens in the world. But how many screens does China need to meet the needs of the market? There is no ready answer to this question, so you might as well use the North American market as a reference. Generally speaking, the North American market has an average of one screen for every 8000 people. In terms of urban population, China has one screen for every 18000 people; according to the absolute population of the whole country, there is only one screen for every 30, 000 people. Even if we take North America as the base, we still have at least 2-3 times the incremental space. Obviously, for Chinese films, this is a good news. This 2-3 times growth space will become the basic driving force to maintain the sustainable development of China's film market in the next few years.

< strong > the sustained growth of the market ultimately depends on the connotation of the film to pull < / strong >

. However, in such a large market, is the creative team of domestic films really ready? If the box office of "Wolf Warriors 2" reaches 5 billion yuan, according to the method of calculating the production cost of 1/3 yuan, the limit of single film investment in domestic films will be further enlarged to about 1.5 billion yuan. With such a large amount of investment, can the creation, production, management and marketing of domestic films meet the requirements of this scale of investment? I think the answer is almost self-evident.

therefore, in a sense, the market success of "Wolf Warriors 2" is still a case that is difficult to replicate in a short time. There is no need to make some inappropriate judgment on the overall reality of the Chinese film market because of the success of this film. Even for Wu Jing himself, what does the box office record of 5 billion yuan mean? Just imagine, if you were to film Wolf Warriors 3, how would investors imagine and define its break-even point? How can Wu Jing and his team ensure that the profit margin of their next film will not be lost to Wolf Warriors 2? In fact, we are not worried that Wu Jing will lose to his own box office record. What we are worried about is whether he and his team can maintain their original creative ideas in the process of putting together this big deal.

the most powerful thing about Wolf Warriors 2 this time is its ability to make cinemas available to people who rarely or never go to the cinema. For most people, watching movies is only a kind of accidental consumption, not habitual daily consumption. To really convert this accidental consumption into daily consumption, it is not a "Wolf Warriors 2", but a number of such films.

this will bring the topic back to the clich é of domestic film creation quality and market competitiveness of single films. In 2015, digital cinemas basically covered all the fourth-tier cities in the country. In other words, the growth mode of relying on market extension to achieve rapid expansion of 30% a year in the first 15 years has come to an end. So, in the following days, what do we rely on to drive the sustained growth of the market? There is only one answer, that is, the connotation of film, including the diversity of film cultural consumption, the degree of industrialization of production, the advanced nature of technology and equipment, the refinement of production technology, the quality of creation and the competitiveness of single film, and so on. At that time, the days when big IP and traffic stars alone can harvest the box office will be difficult to sustain. At that time, films such as "Wolf Warriors 2" will no longer be an isolated case, but will become a successful case for peers to share and learn from, driving a number of similar films to find their respective positions in the market.

the "Wolf Warriors 2" phenomenon seems to have some symbolic significance, from which people can see some new possibilities in the Chinese film market. At the same time, we should be based on the reality of the current film development, make an objective and rational analysis of its success or deficiency, and find its inspiration and reference for the future development of Chinese film.

Edit: mary