Matthew effect fermentation in variety market: advertising premium rate can be as high as 16 times

incomplete statistics show that the investment loss rate of Tier 1 and 2 Satellite TV Variety in 2017 reached 90%, which is even more serious than the loss of almost 80% in 2016.

at nine o'clock in the evening, Wang Zhengfei has just finished three conference calls. Wang Zhengfei is the publicity director of Galaxy Cool Entertainment, and her company developed the network ensemble Mars Intelligence Agency, which is used as IP to develop the Mars series. In the past year, the company has been developing licenses for Mars IP, trying to partner with Mars mooncakes with sales of 18 million, and she is thinking about introducing Mars IP to its most widely-received Internet cafe in 2018.

similar to the idea of Galaxy Cool Entertainment, Sun Yu, CEO, a cultural media organization, is cooperating his IP with various enterprises, including developing the bottom of a Chinese herbal health pot with Haidilao and building a 15-square-meter store in a pharmacy in Dalian to sell Chinese FMCG products. Sun Yu's company developed the first documentary, Materia Medica China and Angel Road, which landed on the prime time of the first-tier satellite TV.

in Sun Yu's opinion, not all IP have heavy verticalization genes, so it is not easy to do IP derivation. "one of my brothers is still doing gourmet variety. I want to do derivatives, but I gave up a long time ago." Sun Yu said that the food is really vertical, can take goods, but the threshold is too low.

for people doing variety shows in the media circle, this year, many programs are trying to tap the value of IP, derivatives and other indirect ways of realization. Behind it is the weak growth of advertising revenue, the original investment is becoming more and more difficult to realize, and the general loss has become the current situation of variety shows. Sun Yu, a former strategic consultant at SMG, who is familiar with many satellite TV executives, revealed that incomplete statistics show that the investment loss rate of first-and second-tier satellite TV variety in 2017 reached 90%, which is even more serious than the loss of almost 80% in 2016.

A senior market publicist who has worked for many years obviously feels that sponsors and brands are more cautious in advertising and are more interested in the conversion rate. "if the brand chooses to invest in variety shows, the first thing to look at is the ratings data, which programs are more popular in the market, or belong to the upward trend."

according to its introduction, the later feedback of the brand mainly focuses on two dimensions. One is to look at the sound volume, such as Weibo Index, Baidu searcher, headline Index, and so on. Many companies are required to make reports. Compare these indexes before and after. On the other hand, pay attention to what users are talking about, whether it is positive emotion or negative emotion, which is judged by big data and artificial intelligence.

< strong > Investment promotion and loss < / strong >

"the same program has a production budget of 45 million yuan in 2014 and a naming fee of 55 million; in 2015, the production budget is 65 million, and the naming budget is about 50 million; in 2017, the production budget is 90 million, and the naming budget is 42 million." Sun Yu is talking about a first-line satellite TV food show. On the one hand, as stars' prices rise, most of the production costs are used to pay stars' salaries, on the other hand, the supply-side reform of the real economy has led to a continuous decline in the sponsor market budget. However, the number of satellite TV variety and network ensembles is increasing by multiple, and the competition is fierce.

the production cost of the above first-tier satellite TV food program is estimated to be about 36 million in 90 million, and the remaining 60 million are all star costs, and only second-tier stars. When the production and broadcasting of television stations are separated, there are also those who need to share the accounts, and there are also those who claim to account for the cost. Usually, the occupancy fee for prime-time stalls on weekends is NT $4,000, NT $60,000, and NT $80 million, depending on the platform. "that is to say, 90 million of the programs need to attract at least 100 million investment before they can reach the middle of last week. Among them, the investment promotion will also remove the agency fees of advertising companies and agents, and go to at least 10 to 15 points, which will attract investment to 120 million. " Sun Yu said that people in the circle call this a code disk, and it is difficult to break even with such costs.

compared with the box office revenue of movies and the copyright purchase of TV dramas, the revenue of variety shows has always depended solely on investment, mainly pre-film and post-film advertising and implantation. With the rise of video websites, the online copyright sale of variety shows has become a new source of income. "especially in 2013, 14 years supply is less than demand, the website needs a lot of good content, and the website is fiercely competitive, the purchase price is relatively good." Sun Yu said that the website began to make its own content, and the price of procurement in 2015 and 16 was gradually lower.

Sun Yu, who started his business in 2014, is a partner of Oriental Satellite TV's deputy director and one of the three chief directors. "at that time, attracting investment was relatively easy. when we came out in 14 years, there were only about 60 programs with a budget of more than NT $30 million in China." Sun Yu partnered with Jiangsu Satellite TV on a new show at that time, and soon the entire variety market began to boom in 2015. "over the past 15 years, more than 30 million programs have been produced, and by 2016, more than 100 million programs have been reported to the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television." "at first people spell the content, then they start to work on the budget because they want to invite stars." Sun Yu said that this is related to the fact that variety shows are all coding stars. Nowadays, variety shows with stars often need a budget of 100 million yuan. Normally, the production cost of a small number of outdoor variety shows is between 30 million and 40 million in principle, including the production team, director group, production team, etc., excluding star costs. If you bring outdoor variety shows, you will increase travel expenses, equipment relocation fees, accommodation, etc., usually plus a budget of 10 million. Wang Zhengfei also admitted to reporters that the stars in the entire industry are too expensive, and now the whole production cost is growing slowly, but the stars are basically popular through one program, and the whole salary will rise many times. "the variety market is the first to make a lot of money, and the following are all high risks." Sun Yu said that the Matthew effect in the variety market is obvious, and the title of satellite TV's weekend prime time program, which ranks seventh to ninth, may only be 20 million to 30 million. However, the weekend prime time of first-line satellite TV may only be sponsored by the third tier of 20 to 30 million yuan. In China, there are still a large number of programs that have been planned and filmed, and in the end, there are even no nominees who have been under pressure, because without a nominee is a loss of blood. Or a good planner is shelved because there is no investment. The reporter also learned a similar statement from a number of people in the industry.

the media market trend release released by CTR in 2017 shows that high-quality content resources will become more and more scarce, and the advertising premium rate of phenomenal variety shows can be as high as 16 times.

< strong > self-made IP and realization < / strong >

Program effect and brand delivery have been quantified with the development of big data. The above-mentioned market public relations personage said that now variety shows are more and more common to use big data through their own and third-party companies, and users' preferences for the plot and actors can be obtained through data mining and cleaning. Through the analysis of big data, "where is Dad going?" Wu Zhenyu and his son are more popular, which may be different from the previous ideas of the program group, which will consciously focus on cutting flowers and describe user portraits. Or if you find that the audience of the post-80s generation is not as many as they imagined, they may arrange to invite Yao Ming to attract the relatively lacking part of the audience.

on the other hand, brands will choose appropriate channels according to their own product characteristics and publicity purposes.

according to the above-mentioned people, some brands, such as Coca-Cola and MK, are at the forefront of the whole market, and it will take risks and innovatively choose some variety shows that it thinks are good. Even if the form of the program is relatively new, the people in the future may be highly coincident with the people it wants to sell. It is often a bit of a bet in the first season, which requires in-depth contact and understanding of the production team and broadcasting platform of variety shows.

"in Mars Intelligence, this form of singing and selling is more popular, and then the ads inserted in the program can bring them more new ideas." Wang Zhengfei said that with the increasing development of big data, the input-output ratio of brand investment is being quantified. The TV station uses to shake, scan, watch and buy, issue instructions through a certain program, and achieve online and store linkage with Taobao, JD.com and other shopping platforms, winning razors, water and other small gifts for free. By increasing the number of stores, it is beneficial to the exposure and sales chain.

unsustainable rising costs and a single profit model make many variety artists begin to think about new variety forms and realization channels.

"the outsourced production cost for the first quarter is 18 million, plus the distribution cost such as publicity and consultancy fees is about 26.7 million." Sun Yu said that the overall project of Materia Medica China suffered a slight loss in the first quarter, and the labor was posted in it, which is considered to be for nothing. The project cost in the second quarter is still less than 30 million, which is estimated to be even. This is a documentary produced by Sun Yu's company that premiered in the prime weekend of Jiangsu Satellite TV and repeated on CCTV. Sun Yu is currently choosing a broadcast channel for the second season, hoping to gain more influence. At the same time, other IP derivatives will be greatly promoted with the broadcast of the second season.

unlike the strictly controlled cost, the investment promotion of Materia Medica in the first quarter of China encountered a lot of trouble. "Advertising attracts very little investment, and normal pre-and post-film patches, including title tags, are not available in the first season. In the words of leaders, they are called Hua Yuan. "We have to support the whole industry, and you support us a little." it coincided with the changes in the advertising department of Jiangsu Satellite TV at that time, and no one was able to help attract investment. Sun Yu said that the investment of Materia Medica in the first quarter of China was carried out by themselves. therefore, strong investment ability has also become an important reference when choosing a platform in the second quarter. At present, according to Sun Yu, the investment volume of Materia Medica in China in the second quarter has reached 18 million. Once the platform is determined, we will begin to determine the patch, angle label and hard label, which is about tens of millions.

in Sun Yu's view, the profit and loss of the program is only one aspect, and he pays more attention to the revenue from IP authorization and derivative sharing. "the profit contribution and revenue contribution of the media disk will only account for about 10% of the average level in the next three years, and the remaining 90% will come from the profits brought about by channel upgrading and product upgrading."

from the business plan of Duying Culture, we can see that the channel upgrade based on Chinese Materia Medica IP refers to the creation of a brand new Chinese concept store chain, which is similar to Chinese "MUJI". First of all, 15 square meters and 50 sku stores will be set up in Dalian's prescription. Product upgrade refers to the independent development of OEM production or authorized cooperation in the joint development of Chinese new concept products. At present, the Chinese side health-preserving hot pot material in cooperation with Haidilao is about to be put on the market. This part of the revenue mainly refers to IP authorization and sales share.

however, Sun Yu also said that all this should be based on the realization of the idea. Compared with Sun Yu's idea, the IP derivative of Galaxy Mutual Entertainment is in the forefront. "this year, the Dragon Boat Festival authorized Martian mooncakes, and the whole package felt like a spark. This Martian mooncake sold 18 million of its sales. And the brand that cooperates with us originally the income is very small, can only sell less than 1 million sales. " Wang Zhengfei said that the IP of the Mars Intelligence Agency has a very large space for derivatives, which not only refers to goods, but also can do derivative programs. This year, we tried a series of live programs on Mars, which realized carrying goods on Taobao. This year, Shuang 11 did some content with goods, and the whole sales are very considerable.

"the future development trend must be the combination of e-commerce and variety, which needs to explore more ways to play." Wang Zhengfei said frankly that if you rely solely on pure variety shows to make money, as the input cost increases, it becomes more and more unrealistic, but not all IP are suitable for derivatives, such as hip-hop content is too vertical is not suitable for derivatives.

Liu Xichen, chairman of Shixi Media, also believes that the innovation of the profit model is a big problem, and we must come out of relying solely on advertising, and there must be new business in addition to advertising. "from B (program side) TO B (brand side) to B TO C (consumer side), such as e-commerce and live rewards. At present, it has not been really successful, and there will be relatively great breakthroughs in the future, and all aspects are exploring. "

Edit: yvonne